Natural Z Score
NGVC   USA Stock  USD 13.34 0.87 6.12% 
Natural Z Score  Natural Z Score 
Natural Z Score Analysis
Natural Grocers' ZScore is a simple linear, multifactor model that measures the financial health and economic stability of a company. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm going into bankruptcy within next 24 months or two fiscal years from the day stated on the accounting statements used to calculate it. The model uses five fundamental business ratios that are weighted according to algorithm of Professor Edward Altman who developed it in the late 1960s at New York University..2018  2019  2020  2021 (projected)  
Consolidated Income  9.42 M  20.01 M  23.01 M  18.64 M 
Direct Expenses  664.83 M  753.7 M  678.33 M  540.88 M 
Z Score  =  Sum Of   5 Factors 
Current Natural Grocers Z Score  3.0 
Most of Natural Grocers' fundamental indicators, such as Z Score, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Natural Grocers By is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
 
 
 
 

Natural Z Score Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Natural Grocers is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Z Score. Since Natural Grocers' main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Natural Grocers' historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Natural Grocers' interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
To calculate ZScore one would need to know current working capital of the company, its total assets, and liabilities, amount of latest retained earnings as well as earnings before interest and tax. ZScore can be used to compare the odds of bankruptcy of companies in a similar line of business or firms operating in the same industry. Companies with ZScores above 3.1 are generally considered to be stable and healthy with a low probability of bankruptcy. Scores that fall between 1.8 and 3.1 lie in a socalled 'grey area' with scores of less than 1, indicating the high probability of distress. Z Score is used widely by financial auditors, accountants, money managers, loan processers, wealth advisers, as well as day traders. In the last 25 years, many financial models that utilize z score has been proved to be successful as a predictor of corporate bankruptcy.
Compare to competition 
Based on the company's disclosures, Natural Grocers By has a Z Score of 3.0. This is 66.89% lower than that of the Consumer Defensive sector and 36.36% higher than that of the Grocery Stores industry. The z score for all United States stocks is 65.6% higher than that of the company.
Natural Grocers Current Valuation Drivers
We derive many important indicators used in calculating different scores of Natural Grocers from analyzing Natural Grocers' financial statements. These drivers represent accounts that assess Natural Grocers' ability to generate profits relative to its revenue, operating costs, and shareholders' equity. Below are some of Natural Grocers' important valuation drivers and their relationship over time.
2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021 (projected)  
Net Income Per Employee  2.11 K  3.52 K  2.56 K  4.67 K  5.37 K  5.23 K  
Revenue Per Employee  235.18 K  235.98 K  245.47 K  242.04 K  217.84 K  210.46 K  
Average Assets  295.5 M  304.73 M  317.7 M  675.77 M  777.14 M  838.49 M  
Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA  43.71 M  44.58 M  46.24 M  59.74 M  53.77 M  44.23 M  
Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization USD  43.61 M  44.48 M  45.74 M  58.94 M  67.78 M  58.72 M  
Earnings before Tax  10.3 M  10.49 M  11.81 M  25.7 M  29.56 M  24.6 M  
Average Equity  131.93 M  143 M  153.64 M  167.56 M  192.69 M  168.76 M  
Enterprise Value  179.57 M  428.04 M  272.98 M  588.99 M  530.09 M  470.42 M  
Free Cash Flow  2.44 M  19.21 M  8.19 M  39.75 M  45.71 M  49.32 M  
Invested Capital  278.07 M  266.68 M  287.2 M  913.78 M  1.05 B  1.13 B  
Invested Capital Average  270.95 M  273.01 M  279.8 M  920.78 M  1.06 B  1.14 B  
Market Capitalization  125.19 M  377.74 M  224.32 M  222.09 M  199.88 M  266.79 M  
Tangible Asset Value  294.34 M  301.44 M  318.47 M  671.32 M  772.02 M  832.97 M  
Working Capital  36.65 M  31.26 M  31.91 M  14.26 M  16.4 M  21.48 M 
Natural Grocers Institutional Holders
Institutional Holdings refers to the ownership stake in Natural Grocers that is held by large financial organizations, pension funds or endowments. Institutions may purchase large blocks of Natural Grocers' outstanding shares and can exert considerable influence upon its management. Institutional holders may also work to push the share price higher once they own the stock. Extensive social media coverage, TV shows, articles in highprofile magazines, and presentations at investor conferences help move the stock higher, increasing Natural Grocers' value.Security Type  Shares  Value  
Dimensional Fund Advisors Lp  Common Shares  1.3 M  14.5 M  
Renaissance Technologies Llc  Common Shares  760 K  8.5 M  
Blackrock Inc  Common Shares  621.8 K  7 M  
Vanguard Group Inc  Common Shares  545.8 K  6.1 M  
Hotchkis Wiley Capital Management Llc  Common Shares  392 K  4.4 M  
Shelton Capital Management  Common Shares  285 K  3.2 M  
Geode Capital Management Llc  Common Shares  218.8 K  2.5 M 
Natural Fundamentals
Return On Equity  13.03 %  
Return On Asset  2.79 %  
Profit Margin  1.95 %  
Operating Margin  2.83 %  
Current Valuation  691.58 M  
Shares Outstanding  22.61 M  
Shares Owned by Insiders  46.58 %  
Shares Owned by Institutions  34.15 %  
Number of Shares Shorted  175.79 K  
Price to Earning  16.90 X  
Price to Book  2.13 X  
Price to Sales  0.27 X  
Revenue  1.06 B  
Gross Profit  292.19 M  
EBITDA  59.46 M  
Net Income  20.58 M  
Cash and Equivalents  23.68 M  
Cash per Share  1.05 X  
Total Debt  401.52 M  
Debt to Equity  2.81 %  
Current Ratio  1.01 X  
Book Value Per Share  5.91 X  
Cash Flow from Operations  53.88 M  
Short Ratio  2.93 X  
Earnings Per Share  0.74 X  
Price to Earnings To Growth  4.75 X  
Number of Employees  3.39 K  
Beta  1.08  
Market Capitalization  283.94 M  
Total Asset  282.25 M  
Retained Earnings  94.06 M  
Working Capital  30.79 M  
Current Asset  97.33 M  
Current Liabilities  66.54 M  
Z Score  3.0  
Last Dividend Paid  0.28 
About Natural Grocers Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Natural Grocers By's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Natural Grocers using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Natural Grocers By based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado. Natural Grocers is traded on New York Stock Exchange in the United States.
Natural Grocers Investors Sentiment
The influence of Natural Grocers' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decisionmaking process regarding taking a position in Natural. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a oneyear investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.Natural Grocers Implied Volatility  99.24 
Natural Grocers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natural Grocers By stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natural Grocers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natural Grocers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natural Grocers' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Natural Grocers in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Natural Grocers' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Natural Grocers options trading.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Natural Grocers By using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
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Additionally, see Natural Grocers Piotroski F Score and Natural Grocers Valuation analysis. Note that the Natural Grocers By information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Natural Grocers' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Complementary Tools for Natural Stock analysis
When running Natural Grocers By price analysis, check to measure Natural Grocers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Grocers is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Grocers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Grocers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Grocers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Grocers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Natural Grocers By is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Grocers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Grocers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Grocers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Grocers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Grocers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Natural Grocers value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Grocers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.